Climate change redefines sea turtle hotspots: Vessel strike risks and gaps in protected areas

Climate change is altering marine ecosystems, driving shifts in sea turtle distributions and challenging conservation efforts. Our study examines how climate change affects the global sea distribution of all seven sea turtle species, intersecting with marine protected areas (MPAs) and shipping corridors. Using species distribution models and environmental data from 2000 to 2024, we project sea turtle habitats under current conditions and three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2100. Our results show substantial habitat redistributions, with poleward shifts and contractions, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Over 50% of sea turtle hotspots may disappear by 2050, with many new habitats in high shipping intensity areas. Alarmingly, only 23% of current hotspots are within MPAs, highlighting the need for adaptive conservation strategies.