违反直觉
经济短缺
自然资源经济学
脆弱性(计算)
供水
偏移量(计算机科学)
缺水
干旱
人口增长
供求关系
人口
水资源管理
环境科学
水资源
经济
环境工程
生态学
计算机科学
微观经济学
程序设计语言
政府(语言学)
哲学
人口学
社会学
认识论
生物
语言学
计算机安全
作者
Giuliano Di Baldassarre,Niko Wanders,Amir AghaKouchak,Linda Kuil,Sally Rangecroft,Ted Veldkamp,Margaret Garcia,Pieter van Oel,Korbinian Breinl,Anne F. Van Loon
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41893-018-0159-0
摘要
The expansion of reservoirs to cope with droughts and water shortages is hotly debated in many places around the world. We argue that there are two counterintuitive dynamics that should be considered in this debate: supply–demand cycles and reservoir effects. Supply–demand cycles describe instances where increasing water supply enables higher water demand, which can quickly offset the initial benefits of reservoirs. Reservoir effects refer to cases where over-reliance on reservoirs increases vulnerability, and therefore increases the potential damage caused by droughts. Here we illustrate these counterintuitive dynamics with global and local examples, and discuss policy and research implications. Reservoirs are frequently posited as a method of increasing water supplies, especially in arid areas. However, they may be inducing and enabling demands for water through increased population and economic activity, and these demands can surpass even the supply that the reservoir can provide and counterintuitively make the areas more vulnerable to drought conditions.
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