Identification of cognitively impaired patients at risk for development of Alzheimer’s disease dementia: an analysis of US Medicare claims data

Identifying factors associated with transitioning from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD dementia) or dementia due to any cause (all-cause dementia) may inform economic assessments of disease and early care planning.A multivariate logistic regression approach identified potential predictors of progression to AD dementia or all-cause dementia in individuals with MCI or cognitive impairment (CI). Eligible patients and variables of interest were identified using claims data from the Medicare Advantage Patient Database, by Optum.Predictors of an AD dementia diagnosis included age (odds ratio [OR], 1.71) and use of antipsychotics (OR, 2.50) and hypertension medication (OR, 1.25). Medication use for comorbid conditions was a better indicator of risk than comorbidity coding. Diagnosis of CI by a neurologist increased the odds of an AD dementia diagnosis. Possible protective factors for progression included the use of anxiolytics (OR, 0.76), inpatient status at time of diagnosis (OR, 0.49), and a history of stroke (OR, 0.87). None of these factors differentiated AD dementia from all-cause dementia.Identifying patients at risk for AD dementia allows for improved system-level planning to guide policy and optimize economic and clinical outcomes for patients, caregivers, and society.