Spatitemporal of Land Use Conflicts and Multi-Scenario Simulation in Poyang Lake Area Based on Optimal Landscape Scale

[Objective]Assess the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of regional land use conflict level can play an important role in the rational allocation of regional land resources. [Methods]A land use conflict measurement model was constructed based on the perspective of landscape ecological risk, and the optimal landscape scale setting method was used to set the appropriate analysis scale, analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflict in Poyang Lake Area from 1990 to 2020, and simulate the spatial pattern of land use conflict in 2035 with the help of the PLUS model in multiple scenarios. [Results]The overall spatial pattern of land use conflicts in Poyang Lake Area that the lakefront area significantly higher than the peripheral area, the southern area generally higher than the northern area, the plain area higher than the mountainous and hilly areas, and the values of conflicts on both sides of the river also significantly high. 1990—2005 conflict changes in urban areas not significant, the level of conflicts in the rural areas and the county junction areas higher, and the level of conflicts further aggravated in the period of 2005—2020, the conflicts of different areas in different scenarios simulated with the help of PLUS model. The level of conflict further aggravated in 2005—2020 overall spatial pattern of conflict under different scenarios in 2035 will continue the state in 2020, but the sustainable development scenario can effectively moderate the level of conflict and realize the balanced development of ecological protection and economic development. [Conclusion]From 1990 to 2020, the center of gravity of land use conflicts in the Poyang Lake shifted from rural and county boundary areas to urban areas, and the level of conflicts showed a rising trend. In the future, the sustainable development method, spatial development of the land in an orderly manner, and attention to the balance between ecological protection and economic development.