Future land use/land cover and its impacts on ecosystem services: case of Aydın, Turkey

Abstract This paper aims to reveal the impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem services and to guide sustainable development decisions by modelling the future land use/land cover pattern and its ecosystem services in the case of Aydın province, Turkey. In this context, the study examined land use/land cover changes in Aydın province, predicted future land use/land cover patterns with three scenarios (natural development, ecosystem service-based development, and economy-based development) using the PLUS model, and determined the impact of land use/land cover changes on InVEST generated carbon storage and habitat quality ecosystem services. The key drivers of land use/land cover change in Aydın were agricultural expansion, the transformation of different vegetation types into each other, and, even on a small scale, urbanization. The study revealed that changes in the spatial pattern of land use/land cover types, together with the effect of changing vegetation patterns, have a significant impact on carbon storage and habitat quality. While reductions in shrubland and forests were detrimental, transformations from openspaces to them, particularly at their boundaries, enhanced the capacity of carbon storage and habitat quality. On the other hand, even though the scenarios of ecosystem service-based development and economy-based development were based on the economic value of ecosystem services and the value of products/services obtained from different land use/land cover types, respectively, the ecosystem service-based development scenario was characterized by more effective land use/land cover management in terms of maximizing both the economic and ecological benefits. This highlights the significance and emerging need for prioritizing ecological considerations in urban planning.