Spatial and Cross-Sectoral Transfer of Air Pollutant Emissions from the Fleet Electrification in China by 2030

Fleet electrification shifts emission sources from the tailpipe to electricity generation and automotive supply chains subsequently, with emission transfer among regions. Such a spatial and cross-sectoral transfer of air pollutant emissions might embody uncertain environmental benefits spatially, which has not been comprehensively quantified, mainly due to the complexity of manufacturing processes of electric vehicle (EV) components (e.g., battery). We developed a hybrid life cycle assessment by combining inventory data of major processes and cross-sectoral input-output information and identified how China's EV deployment would influence the spatial redistribution of air pollutant emissions currently (2017) and in the future (2030). The results indicate that fleet electrification could readily reduce life cycle nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and nonmethane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions by 12-93%, and the reductions are estimated to be concentrated in major cities and urban agglomerations. However, increased demand for electricity and power battery production could increase PM_2.5 and SO₂ emissions in 17-55% of grids under all the scenarios, which emerge in coal-rich (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Shanxi) and industrial (e.g., Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu) provinces. By tracing the upstream, 31-55% of vehicle-cycle emissions are from deep supply chains but exhibit diverse sources. It suggests the necessity to relieve emissions leakage of fleet electrification by synchronizing effective environmental management across multiple sectors through EV supply chains.