Uncertainty analysis of dam finite element simulation based on a surrogate model

Under the influence of multi-source information environment, dam and basic material parameters, boundary conditions, loads, monitoring (detection) information, and mechanical models are all uncertain. It is a hot topic in the field of dam engineering to study the transmission and cumulative effect of uncertainty and its influence mechanism on dam structure, and to develop a set of uncertainty information reduction technologies based on multi-source monitoring data. Based on the analysis of the uncertainty of dam structure response and its influencing factors, this paper puts forward a dam finite element simulation surrogate model, which realizes the dam uncertainty analysis on the transmission and accumulation effect. The engineering example shows that the uncertainty of model parameters has a significant effect on the transmission and accumulation of dam structural response.