Contribution of Post-TB Sequelae to Life-Years Lost from TB Disease in the United States, 2015-2019

Individuals surviving TB disease may experience chronic sequelae that reduce survival and quality-of-life. These post-TB sequalae are not generally considered in estimates of the health impact of TB disease. To estimate the TB-attributable reductions in life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy for individuals developing TB disease in the United States, including post-TB sequelae. We extracted national surveillance data on individuals diagnosed with TB during 2015-2019, including demographics, vital status at diagnosis, treatment duration, treatment outcome, and co-prevalent conditions. Using a mathematical model we simulated life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for the TB cohort, as compared to a no-TB counterfactual (same distribution of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and co-prevalent conditions as the TB cohort but without TB-attributable mortality and disutility). We disaggregated results to report the proportion due to post-TB sequelae, and stratified outcomes by age, sex, and race. Estimated life expectancy after TB diagnosis was 30.3 (95% uncertainty interval: 29.9, 30.7) years for the TB cohort versus 32.3 (31.9, 32.7) without TB, a difference of 2.03 (1.84, 2.21) years and 1.93 (1.69, 2.18) QALYs. Life-years lost were greatest for 65-74-year-olds versus other age groups, for men versus women, and for American Indian or Alaska Native individuals versus persons from other race/ethnicities. Overall, 41% (35, 46) of life-years and 48% (42, 54) of QALYs lost were estimated to result from post-TB sequelae. In the United States, a substantial fraction of the life-years and QALYs lost from TB are attributable to post-TB sequelae. Evidence is needed on approaches to prevent and repair post-TB lung damage, in the context of frequent co-prevalent health conditions.