Exploring the Drivers of Ecosystem Service Changes from a Spatio-Temporal Perspective in Vulnerable Nanling Mountainous Areas in SE China

Mountains support many kinds of ecosystem services (ESs) for human beings, emphasizing the need to understand the characteristics and drivers of ES changes in mountainous regions. In this study, Nanling, the most significant mountains of southern China, was selected as a case study. Utilizing the GlobeLand30 dataset, we employed InVEST, Geodetector and MGWR to identify the spatio-temporal characteristics and drivers of ES changes, investigate trade-offs and synergies between ESs, and examine the relationship between ESs and the landscape ecological risk index (LERI) to provide a new perspective for ecosystem management in vulnerable mountain regions. The results showed that carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) slightly decreased, while the water yield (WY) increased slightly. Soil conservation (SC) significantly decreased, but the total ES (TES) slightly increased. All ES bundles demonstrated a synergistic relationship, but most of the synergies exhibited a decreasing trend. The ESs in the study area were mainly affected by climate factors, and anthropogenic factors also had a significant impact on ESs. LERI exhibited a negative correlation with the provision of ESs and demonstrated a high explanatory power for ES changes, especially for CS, HQ and TES, suggesting that areas with more stable landscape patterns are likely to harbor greater levels of ESs. The results provide insights into the analysis of the characteristics of ES change in vulnerable mountainous areas, also providing the practical implications for introducing LERI as a driver for ES change.