Risk Factors for Nonunion After Nonoperative Treatment for Pediatric Lumbar Spondylolysis: A Retrospective Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: Pediatric lumbar spondylolysis, a stress fracture of the lumbar spine, frequently affects young athletes, and nonoperative treatment is often the first choice of management. Because the union rate in lumbar spondylolysis is lower than that in general fatigue fractures, identifying risk factors for nonunion is essential for optimizing treatment. PURPOSE: To determine the risk factors for nonunion after nonoperative treatment of acute pediatric lumbar spondylolysis through multivariate analysis. STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: We analyzed 574 pediatric patients (mean age, 14.3 ± 1.9 years) with lumbar spondylolysis who underwent nonoperative treatment between 2015 and 2022. Nonoperative treatment included the elimination of sports activities, bracing, and weekly athletic rehabilitation, with follow-up computed tomography. Patient data, lesion characteristics, sports history, presence of spina bifida occulta at the lamina with a lesion or at the lumbosacral spine excluding the lesion level, and lumbosacral parameters were examined. Differences between the union and nonunion groups were investigated using multivariate analysis to determine the risk factors for nonunion. RESULTS: Of the 574 patients, 81.7% achieved bone union. Multivariate analysis revealed that an L5 lesion and the progression of the main and contralateral lesion stages were significant independent risk factors for nonunion. An L5 lesion had a lower union rate than non-L5 lesions. As the main lesion progressed, the likelihood of nonunion increased significantly, and the progression of the contralateral lesion also showed a similar trend. Spina bifida occulta and lumbosacral parameters were not significant predictors of nonunion in this study. CONCLUSION: We identified the L5 lesion level and the progression of the main and contralateral lesion stages as independent risk factors for nonunion in pediatric lumbar spondylolysis after nonoperative treatment. These findings aid in treatment decision-making. When bone union cannot be expected with nonoperative treatment, symptomatic treatment is required without prolonged external fixation and rest, and without aiming for bone union. Individualized treatment plans are crucial based on identified risk factors.