The limits to degrowth: Economic and climatic consequences of pessimist assumptions on decoupling

In the debate between proponents of green growth and degrowth, the core issue is whether decoupling carbon emissions and resource use from GDP growth is possible, and if so, possible at a rate fast enough to achieve policy goals such as global warming of maximum 1.5 °C or 2 °C. In this paper, the claims by degrowth scholars on the limits of decoupling growth and carbon emissions are critically examined by assessing the economic and climate consequences of their claims. It is claimed that their pessimistic view on decoupling is not based on robust arguments but rather mystifications of what decoupling is. Following the assumptions by leading degrowth scholars – that decoupling (decrease of the emission intensity of GDP) are unlikely to be larger than 4% and that levels of GDP need to converge in a degrowing world – indicates that the 1.5 °C target is ruled out altogether and that in order to reach the 2 °C target, the economies of the global north would have to be reduced with over 90% and for middle income countries with around 70%. This appears as very unlikely to happen. Yet, there might be alternatives, which are discussed by sketching a realist and dynamic theory of decoupling.