Research on Carbon Emission Reduction and Benefit Pathways for Chinese Urban Renewal Market Players Based on a Tripartite Evolutionary Game: A Carbon Trading Perspective

As the largest carbon emitter globally, China has formally adopted dual-carbon targets of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Urban renewal, as an essential approach to promoting sustainable urban development, plays a critical role in realizing dual-carbon targets. However, carbon emission reduction in urban renewal involves multiple stakeholders with divergent interests, significantly hindering the effective achievement of emission reduction goals. In this context, this paper innovatively selects the government, developers, and construction enterprises as game subjects and constructs an evolutionary game model of the three parties’ participation in carbon emission reduction from the perspective of carbon trading. Through simulation analysis, it explores the impacts of government subsidies, penalty mechanisms, additional benefits, and carbon trading on stakeholder decision-making. The findings indicate the following: (1) The emission reduction process in urban renewal follows an evolutionary pattern of the initial, growth, and mature stages. (2) Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that government subsidies and penalty mechanisms play important roles. (3) Additional benefits serve as intrinsic motivation for developers and construction enterprises to reduce emissions, while a well-developed carbon trading market provides additional incentives and benefit pathways for stakeholders. By integrating urban renewal with carbon trading for the first time, this study aims to enhance stakeholders’ engagement in emission reduction and provide practical reference suggestions, thereby contributing to sustainable urban development.