The impact of rainfall shocks in childhood and adolescence on human capital development

Abstract Understanding the impacts of environmental conditions is critical for shaping policies aimed at improving human capital outcomes in developing contexts. This study utilizes individual‐level data on children from Pakistan to investigate the impact of rainfall shocks, from the in‐utero stage to age 16, on human capital development. The results reveal that positive rainfall shocks reduce cognitive performance in older children (ages 11–16), as their school attendance declines and their participation in labor increases. In contrast, younger children (ages 5–10) are mostly unaffected. Positive rainfall shocks during school transition and early teenage years (ages 11–16) reduce the overall educational attainment among young adults (ages 16–30) and increase the likelihood of marriage between ages 18 and 24. Conversely, children born during years of positive rainfall shocks exhibit improved physical and cognitive development, and are less likely to engage in child marriage or child labor. These long‐term effects are especially pronounced among girls.