冲程(发动机)
医学
中国
人口
统计的
中国人口
人口学
广义估计方程
农村地区
统计
环境卫生
数学
地理
机械工程
生物化学
化学
考古
社会学
基因型
工程类
基因
病理
作者
Kaixin Zhang,Zhengbao Zhu,Hao Peng,Mingzhi Zhang,Hongmei Li,Aili Wang,Xiaoqing Bu,Tian Xu,Yonghong Zhang
标识
DOI:10.1080/01616412.2022.2089833
摘要
Background The aim of this study is to investigate the capability using the China-PAR stroke equations for predicting 10-year risk of stroke among the Inner Mongolian population in China.Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted among 2535 rural Inner Mongolian residents from June 2002 to July 2012. Participants were categorized into four subgroups according to their 10-year predicted stroke risks calculated using the China-PAR stroke equations: <5%, 5–9.9%, 10–19.9%, and ≥20%.Results The C-statistic of the China-PAR stroke equations for 10-year stroke was 0.58, and the result from Hosmer–Lemeshow ‘goodness-of-fit’ test showed that the China-PAR stroke equations fitted the Inner Mongolian women well (χ2 = 11.18, P = 0.192). The adjusted hazard ratios of stroke were 3.86 (95% CI: 1.12–13.29) for 5–9.9% category, 10.37 (95% CI: 2.70–39.84) for 10–19.9% category, and 17.00 (95% CI: 3.54–81.63) for ≥20% category among Inner Mongolian women using the <5% category as reference (P for trend <0.001). However, the China-PAR stroke equations underestimated the 10-year stroke risk in Inner Mongolian men, and the calibration was unsatisfactory (χ2 = 15.82, P = 0.045).Conclusion The China-PAR stroke equations have potential predictive ability for 10-year stroke risk in the rural Inner Mongolian women, while it might not suit the rural Inner Mongolian men well. The performance of China-PAR stroke equations in other ethnic groups in China will need to be further evaluated.
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