Late frost as a driver of ecotypic differentiation in sugar maple: Implications for assisted migration

Global warming advances bud break, mismatches plant phenology from the local climate, and exposes the developing leaves to higher risks of frost damage. Bud break of sugar maple [Acer saccharum (Marsh.)], a species included in recent programs of assisted migration, is sensitive to nighttime spring temperatures. This suggests a link between frost events and leaf development. In this study, we raise the hypothesis that late frost is an evolutionary driver of growth reactivation in sugar maple provenances. We investigated the ecotypic variation of bud phenology in 30 provenances planted in two common gardens within and at the northern limit of the species range, in the Province of Quebec, Canada. Eight phases of bud break were assessed twice a week during 2020 on 252 and 272 seedlings in southern and northern sites, respectively. In the southern site, bud break occurred in May, starting on average 12 days earlier and ending 3 days earlier compared to the northern site. Logistic regression was used to estimate the probability of late frost and the results showed that regions located in the north, at higher elevations, and along the northeastern coast of the native maple range showed the latest occurrences of frost events in spring. This pattern mirrored the timing of bud break. When planted in the same common garden, provenances originating from sites with later spring frosts leafed out earlier. Such differences were maintained across the eight bud phenological phases and between the two common gardens, which indicates a similar response of the provenances to changing growing conditions. To avoid frost damage to sugar maple plantations, assisted migration should account for phenotypic traits in bud phenology, ensuring that the frost regime at the origin of the provenances is compatible with that of plantations.