Forecasting quantities of critical raw materials in obsolete feature and smart phones in Greece: A path to circular economy

Mobile phones represent an ever-increasing waste stream due to the increasing ownership and short lifetime. In particular, smartphones are among the most valuable e-waste because of their extremely high content of numerous key metals, specifically in the printed circuit board and magnets. As feature and smart phones contain different key metals at different concentrations, it is important to distinguish between the two phone types to make reliable estimations. This study presents estimations of obsolete mobile phones quantities, generated in Greece in 1995-2035 and the Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) and Precious Metals (PMs) embedded in them, making a differentiation between feature and smart phones. The dynamic material flow analysis is adopted, the lifespan is evaluated by the Weibull distribution and future sales are predicted by the logistic model incorporating phases of growth, saturation and decline. Then, the future wastes are predicted by the Market Supply A model. According to the results, the generation of obsolete smartphones is constantly increasing, while the waste flows of feature phones are declining. Efficient recycling of obsolete phones (1995-2020) can cover the demand for key metals (Au, Pd, Co) in the new smartphones for more than a decade in Greece, while the demand for Ag, Sb, Si, Zn, Be, Ti will be covered for more than 15 years. In 2020-2035 the accumulated amounts of CRMs and PMs, only from the smartphone waste, will be 1292.02 and 14.11 tonnes, respectively. The findings can contribute to the management of a valuable e-waste category closing the loop between resources-products-wastes.