Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

医学人口学环境卫生人口相对风险饮酒量疾病负担置信区间老年学酒内科学生物化学化学社会学

作者

Dana Bryazka,Marissa B Reitsma,Max Griswold,Kalkidan Hassen Abate,Cristiana Abbafati,Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari,Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari,Amir Abdoli,Mohammad Abdollahi,Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah,E S Abhilash,Eman Abu‐Gharbieh,Juan Acuña,Giovanni Addolorato,Oladimeji Adebayo,Victor Adekanmbi,Kishor Adhikari,Sangeet Adhikari,Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani,Saira Afzal,Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu,Manik Aggarwal,Bright Opoku Ahinkorah,Araz Ramazan Ahmad,Sajjad Ahmad,Tauseef Ahmad,Ali Ahmadi,Sepideh Ahmadi,Haroon Ahmed,Tarik Ahmed Rashid,Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna,Hanadi Al Hamad,Md. Zakiul Alam,Dejene Tsegaye Alem,Kefyalew Addis Alene,Yousef Alimohamadi,Atiyeh Alizadeh,Kasim Allel,Jordi Alonso,Saba Alvand,Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán,Firehiwot Amare,Edward Kwabena Ameyaw,Sohrab Amiri,Robert Ancuceanu,Jason A Anderson,Cătălina Liliana Andrei,Tudorel Andrei,Jalal Arabloo,Muhammad Arshad,Anton A Artamonov,Zahra Aryan,Malke Asaad,Mulusew Andualem Asemahagn,Thomas Astell–Burt,Seyyed Shamsadin Athari,Desta Debalkie Atnafu,Prince Atorkey,Alok Atreya,Floriane Ausloos,Marcel Ausloos,Getinet Ayano,Martin Amogre Ayanore,Olatunde Ayinde,José Luís Ayuso-Mateos,Sina Azadnajafabad,Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw,Mohammadreza Azangou‐Khyavy,Amirhossein Azari Jafari,Ahmed Y Azzam,Ashish D Badiye,Nasser Bagheri,Sara Bagherieh,Mohan Bairwa,Shankar M Bakkannavar,Ravleen Kaur Bakshi,Awraris Hailu Balchut/Bilchut,Till Bärnighausen,Fabio Barra,Amadou Barrow,Pritish Baskaran,Luis Belo,Derrick Bennett,Isabela M. Benseñor,Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula,Neeraj Bhala,Ashish Bhalla,Nikha Bhardwaj,Pankaj Bhardwaj,Sonu Bhaskar,Krittika Bhattacharyya,Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja,Bagas Suryo Bintoro,Elena A Elena Blokhina,Belay Boda,Archith Boloor,Cristina Bosetti,Dejana Braithwaite,Hermann Brugger,Н. И. Брико,André R. Brunoni,Zahid A Butt,Yin Cao,Yin Chen,Rosario Cárdenas,André F. Carvalho,Márcia Carvalho,João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia,Giulio Castelpietra,Luís Fernando Silva Castro-de-Araujo,Maria Sofia Cattaruzza,Promit Ananyo Chakraborty,Jaykaran Charan,Vijay Kumar Chattu,Akhilanand Chaurasia,Nicolas Cherbuin,Dinh‐Toi Chu,Nandita Chudal,Sheng‐Chia Chung,Chuchu Churko,Liliana G Ciobanu,Massimo Cirillo,Rafael Moreira Claro,Simona Costanzo,Richard G. Cowden,Michael H. Criqui,Natália Cruz‐Martins,Garland T Culbreth,Berihun Assefa Dachew,Omid Dadras,Xiaochen Dai,Giovanni Damiani,Lalit Dandona,Rakhi Dandona,Beniam Darge Daniel,Anna Danielewicz,Jiregna Darega Gela,Kairat Davletov,Jacyra Azevedo Paiva de Araujo,Antonio Reis de Sá-Junior,Sisay Abebe Debela,Azizallah Dehghan,Andreas K. Demetriades,Meseret Derbew Molla,Rupak Desai,Abebaw Alemayehu Desta,Diana Dias da Silva,Daniel Díaz,Lankamo Ena Digesa,Mengistie Diress,Milad Dodangeh,Deepa Dongarwar,Fariba Dorostkar,Haneil Larson Dsouza,Bereket Duko,Bruce Bartholow Duncan,Kristina Edvardsson,Michael Ekholuenetale,Frank J. Elgar,Muhammed Elhadi,Mohamed A. Elmonem,Aman Yesuf Endries,Sharareh Eskandarieh,Azin Etemadimanesh,Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe,Ildar Fakhradiyev,Farzam Farahmand,Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha,André Faro,Farshad Farzadfar,Ali Fatehizadeh,Nelsensius Klau Fauk,Valery Feigin,Rachel Feldman,Xiaoqi Feng,Zinabu Fentaw,Simone Ferrero,Lorenzo Ferro Desideri,Irina Filip,Florian Fischer,Joel Msafiri Francis,Richard C. Franklin,Péter Gaál,Mohamed M. Gad,Silvano Gallus,Fabio Galvano,Balasankar Ganesan,Tushar Garg,Mesfin Gebrehiwot,Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel,Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael,Tadele Regasa Gemechu,Lemma Getacher,Motuma Erena Getachew,Abera Getachew Obsa,Asmare Getie,Amir Ghaderi,Mansour Ghafourifard,Alireza Ghajar,Seyyed‐Hadi Ghamari,Lilian Ghandour,Mohammad Ghasemi Nour,Ahmad Ghashghaee,Sherief Ghozy,Franklin N. Glozah,Екатерина Владимировна Глушкова,Justyna Godos,Amit Goel,Salime Goharinezhad,Mahaveer Golechha,Pouya Goleij,Mohamad Golitaleb,Felix Greaves,Michal Grivna,Giuseppe Grosso,Temesgen Worku Gudayu,Bhawna Gupta,Rajeev Gupta,Sapna Gupta,Veer Bala Gupta,Vivek Kumar Gupta,Nima Hafezi-Nejad,Arvin Haj-Mirzaian,Brian J. Hall,Rabih Halwani,Tiilahun Beyene Handiso,Graeme J. Hankey,Sanam Hariri,Josep María Haro,Ahmed I. Hasaballah,Hossein Hassanian‐Moghaddam,Simon I Hay,Khezar Hayat,Golnaz Heidari,Mohammad Heidari,Delia Hendrie,Claudiu Herţeliu,Demisu Zenbaba,Kamal Hezam,Mbuzeleni Hlongwa,Ramesh Holla,Md Mahbub Hossain,Sahadat Hossain,Seyed Kianoosh Hosseini,Mehdi Hosseinzadeh,Mihaela Hostiuc,Sorin Hostiuc,Guoqing Hu,Junjie Huang,Salman Hussain,Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye,Irena Ilić,Milena D Ilic,Mustapha Immurana,Lalu Muhammad Irham,M Mofizul Islam,Rakibul Islam,Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam,Hiroyasu Iso,Ramaiah Itumalla,Masao Iwagami,Roxana Jabbarinejad,Louis Jacob,Mihajlo Jakovljević,Zahra Jamalpoor,Elham Jamshidi,Sathish Kumar Jayapal,Umesh Jayarajah,Ranil Jayawardena,Rime Jebai,Seyed Ali Jeddi,Alelign Tasew Jema,Ravi Prakash Jha,Har Ashish Jindal,Jost B. Jonas,Tamás Joó,Nitin Joseph,Farahnaz Joukar,Jacek Jerzy Jóźwiak,Mikk Jürisson,Ali Kabir,Robel Hussen Kabthymer,Bhushan Dattatray Kamble,Himal Kandel,Girum Gebremeskel Kanno,Neeti Kapoor,Ibraheem M. Karaye,Salah Eddin Karimi,Bekalu Getnet Kassa,Rimple Jeet Kaur,Gbenga A Kayode,Mohammad Keykhaei,Himanshu Khajuria,Rovshan Khalilov,Imteyaz Ahmad Khan,Moien AB Khan,Hanna Kim,Jihee Kim,Min Seo Kim,Ruth W Kimokoti,Mika Kivimäki,Vitalii Klymchuk,Ann Kristin Knudsen,Ali‐Asghar Kolahi,Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov,Ai Koyanagi,Kewal Krishan,Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy,G Anil Kumar,Narinder Kumar,Nithin Kumar,Ben Lacey,Tea Lallukka,Savita Lasrado,Jerrald Lau,Sang-woong Lee,Wei‐Chen Lee,Yo Han Lee,Lee‐Ling Lim,Stephen S Lim,Stany W. Lobo,Platon D Lopukhov,Stefan Lorkowski,Rafael Lozano,Giancarlo Lucchetti,Farzan Madadizadeh,Áurea Madureira-Carvalho,Soleiman Mahjoub,Ata Mahmoodpoor,Rashidul Alam Mahumud,Alaa Makki,Mohammad‐Reza Malekpour,N Manjunatha,Borhan Mansouri,Mohammad Alì Mansournia,José Martı́nez-Raga,Francisco Antonio Martinez-Villa,Richard Matzopoulos,Pallab K. Maulik,Mahsa Mayeli,John McGrath,Jitendra Kumar Meena,Entezar Mehrabi Nasab,Ritesh G. Menezes,Gert Mensink,Alexios-Fotios A Mentis,Atte Meretoja,Bedasa Taye Merga,Tomislav Meštrović,Junmei Miao Jonasson,Bartosz Miazgowski,Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá,Ted R. Miller,GK Mini,Andreea Mirică,Antonio Mirijello,Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni,Erkin M Mirrakhimov,Sanjeev Misra,Babak Moazen,Maryam Mobarakabadi,Marcello Moccia,Yousef Mohammad,Esmaeil Mohammadi,Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani,Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed,Nagabhishek Moka,Ali H. Mokdad,Sara Momtazmanesh,Yousef Moradi,Ebrahim Mostafavi,Sumaira Mubarik,Erin C Mullany,Beemnet Tekabe Mulugeta,Efrén Murillo-Zamora,Christopher J L Murray,Julius Chacha Mwita,Mohsen Naghavi,Mukhammad David Naimzada,Vinay Nangia,Biswa Prakash Nayak,Ionuţ Negoi,Ruxandra Irina Negoi,Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi,Samata Nepal,Sudan Prasad Neupane,Sandhya Neupane Kandel,Yeshambel T. Nigatu,Ali Nowroozi,Khan M Nuruzzaman,Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam,Kehinde O Obamiro,Felix Akpojene Ogbo,Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade,Hassan Okati-Aliabad,Babayemi O Olakunde,Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira,Ahmed Omar Bali,Emad Omer,Doris Verónica Ortega-Altamirano,Adrian Oţoiu,Stanislav S Otstavnov,Bilcha Oumer,P A Mahesh,Alicia Padrón‐Monedero,Raffaele Palladino,Adrian Pană,Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas,Anamika Pandey,Ashok Pandey,Shahina Pardhan,Tarang Parekh,Eun-Kee Park,Charles Parry,Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan,Jay Patel,Siddhartha Pati,George C Patton,Uttam Paudel,Shrikant Pawar,Amy E. Peden,Ionela-Roxana Petcu,Michael R. Phillips,Marina Pinheiro,Evgenii Plotnikov,Pranil Man Singh Pradhan,Akila Prashant,Jianchao Quan,Amir Radfar,Alireza Rafiei,Pankaja Raghav Raghav,Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar,Azizur Rahman,Md Mosfequr Rahman,Mosiur Rahman,Amir Masoud Rahmani,Shayan Rahmani,Chhabi Lal Ranabhat,Priyanga Ranasinghe,Chythra R Rao,Drona Rasali,Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi,Zubair Ahmed Ratan,David Laith Rawaf,Salman Rawaf,Lal Rawal,Andre Μ Ν Renzaho,Negar Rezaei,Saeid Rezaei,Mohsen Rezaeian,Seyed Mohammad Riahi,Esperanza Romero‐Rodríguez,Gregory A. Roth,Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera,Basema Saddik,Erfan Sadeghi,Reihaneh Sadeghian,Umar Saeed,Farhad Saeedi,Rajesh Sagar,Amirhossein Sahebkar,Harihar Sahoo,Mohammad Ali Sahraian,K. M. Saif‐Ur‐Rahman,Sarvenaz Salahi,Hamideh Salimzadeh,Abdallah M. Samy,Francesco Sanmarchi,Milena M Santric-Milicevic,Yaser Sarikhani,Brijesh Sathian,Ganesh Kumar Saya,Mehdi Sayyah,María Inês Schmidt,Aletta E. Schutte,Michaël Schwarzinger,David C. Schwebel,Abdul‐Aziz Seidu,Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar,SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi,Allen Seylani,Feng Sha,Sarvenaz Shahin,Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi,Shayan Shahrokhi,Masood Ali Shaikh,Elaheh Shaker,Murad Z. Shakhmardanov,Mehran Shams-Beyranvand,Sara Sheikhbahaei,Rahim Ali Sheikhi,Adithi Shetty,Jeevan K. Shetty,Damtew Solomon Shiferaw,Mika Shigematsu,Rahman Shiri,Reza Shirkoohi,K. M. Shivakumar,Velizar Shivarov,Parnian Shobeiri,Roman Shrestha,Negussie Boti Sidemo,Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir,Diego Augusto Santos Silva,Natacha Torres da Silva,Jasvinder A Singh,Surjit Singh,Valentin Yurievich Skryabin,Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina,David A. Sleet,Marco Solmi,Yonatan Solomon,Suhang Song,Yimeng Song,Reed J D Sorensen,Sergey Soshnikov,Ireneous N Soyiri,Dan J. Stein,Sonu Hangma Subba,Miklós Szócska,Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos,Takahiro Tabuchi,Majid Taheri,Ker‐Kan Tan,Minale Tareke,Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang,Gebremaryam Temesgen,Worku Animaw Temesgen,Mohamad-Hani Temsah,Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan,Rekha Thapar,Nikhil Kenny Thomas,Chalachew Tiruneh,Jovana Todorović,Marco Torrado,Mathilde Touvier,Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone,Mai Thi Ngoc Tran,Sergi Trias‐Llimós,Jaya Prasad Tripathy,Alireza Vakilian,Rohollah Valizadeh,Mehdi Varmaghani,Shoban Babu Varthya,Tommi Vasankari,Theo Vos,Birhanu Wagaye,Yasir Waheed,Mandaras Tariku,Cong Wang,Yanzhong Wang,Yuan‐Pang Wang,Ronny Westerman,Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe,Abate Dargie Wubetu,Suowen Xu,Kazumasa Yamagishi,Lin Yang,Gesila Endashaw E Yesera,Arzu Yiğit,Vahit Yiğit,Ayenew Engida Ayenew Engida Yimaw,Dong Keon Yon,Naohiro Yonemoto,Chuanhua Yu,Siddhesh Zadey,Mazyar Zahir,Iman Zare,Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин,Anasthasia Zastrozhina,Zhijiang Zhang,Chenwen Zhong,Mohammad Zmaili,Yves Miel H Zuñiga,Emmanuela Gakidou

出处

期刊：The Lancet [Elsevier]
日期：2022-07-01 卷期号：400 (10347): 185-235 被引量：133

标识

DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(22)00847-9

摘要

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

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