Qatar Peninsula’s vulnerability to oil spills and its implications for the global gas supply

More than 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and almost all of Qatar’s drinking water production originate from three industrial sites on Qatar’s eastern coast. They are all vulnerable to oil spills, and this vulnerability remains largely unquantified. Here we model oil-spill dispersal in the shallow maritime waters surrounding Qatar to identify which offshore areas and times of the year pose the greatest threat to the nation’s LNG export and seawater desalination facilities. By combining oil transport simulations with marine traffic data, we identify two high-risk areas, sizing up to ~15% of Qatar’s maritime exclusive economic zone. Ras Laffan’s LNG terminal has the highest vulnerability to oil spills all year, and its desalination plant, producing 30% of the national water supply, has a seasonal vulnerability peaking to an alarming level twice a year during spring and fall. Both LNG export and desalination facilities could be impacted by oil spills occurring outside of Qatar’s maritime borders in less than three days. We suggest that offshore high-risk areas be closely monitored with airborne and satellite synthetic-aperture radar providing early warning for oil spills that could severely disrupt Qatar’s LNG exports, further aggravating the global gas crisis. The stability of energy supply chains is an increasingly urgent global problem. Liquefied natural gas exported from Qatar is seen by some as a potential solution. However, the country’s infrastructure is highly vulnerable to oil spills in the Persian Gulf with the potential to further upset global gas supplies.