Ecosystem Services Supply‐Demand Mismatch and Their Drivers in Highly Spatially Heterogeneous South China Karst Ecoregions

ABSTRACT Understanding the issues of natural capital, group consumption, and the role of internal and external factors in discussions on the sustainability of ecosystem services (ES) can help to realize sustainable socio‐ecological system management. However, previous studies have complemented ecological management practices from a holistic or ES supply perspective, with little consideration of spatial and temporal differences in supply–demand mismatches across ecoregions. On the basis of the frameworks of spatial quantification, matching analysis, driver identification, and management strategy development, this study explores the differences in the supply and demand of key ES in various ecological zones of the South China Karst (SCK) and employs correlation analyses to reveal the direction and degree of influence of the drivers on the mismatch of supply and demand. Furthermore, valuable ecological management strategies are provided. The results showed that, in general, the supply of habitat quality (HQ) and carbon sequestration (CS) decreased, and the supply capacity for soil conservation (SC), food provision (FP), and water yield (WY) improved. The demand for WY decreased, whereas the demand for all other services increased to varying degrees. Except for the SC imbalance, the supply and demand of other ES matched well, with localized mismatch areas concentrated around the city. These gradually evolved from a point distribution to a continuous type of line or even surface distribution from 2000 to 2020. The temporal and spatial variability of ES was evident in different ecoregions, and key socio‐ecological drivers were inconsistent in their ability to explain ES supply and demand mismatches, especially in medium‐high mountain regions. Additionally, we provide valuable spatial planning and ecological management strategies for future socioe‐cological system management on the basis of the results of different regional studies.