Development and validation of a clinical–radiomics model to predict recurrence for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Recurrence is the leading cause of death in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with curative resection. In this study, we aimed to develop a preoperative predictive model based on high-throughput radiomics features and clinical factors for prediction of long- and short-term recurrence for these patients.A total of 270 patients with HCC who were followed up for at least 5 years after curative hepatectomy between June 2014 and December 2017 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Regions of interest were manually delineated in preoperative T2-weighted images using ITK-SNAP software on each HCC tumor slice. A total of 1197 radiomics features were extracted, and the recursive feature elimination method based on logistic regression was used for radiomics signature building. Tenfold cross-validation was applied for model development. Nomograms were constructed and assessed by calibration plot, which compares nomogram-predicated probability with observed outcome. Receiver-operating characteristic was then generated to evaluate the predictive performance of the model in the development and test cohorts.The 10 most recurrence-free survival-related radiomics features were selected for the radiomics signatures. A multiparametric clinical-radiomics model combining albumin and radiomics score for recurrence prediction was further established. The integrated model demonstrated good calibration and satisfactory discrimination, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.864, 95% CI 0.842-0.903, sensitivity of 0.889, and specificity of 0.644 in the test set. Calibration curve showed good agreement concerning 5-year recurrence risk predicted by the nomogram. In addition, the AUC of 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-year recurrence was 0.935 (95% CI 0.836-1.000), 0.861 (95% CI 0.723-0.999), 0.878 (95% CI 0.762-0.994), and 0.878 (95% CI 0.762-0.994) in the test set, respectively.The clinical-radiomics model integrating radiomics features and clinical factors can improve recurrence predictions beyond predictions made using clinical factors or radiomics features alone. Our clinical-radiomics model is a valid method to predict recurrence that should improve preoperative prognostic performance and allow more individualized treatment decisions.