The Network Spillover Effects of Metro Expansion on Metro Usage: A Quasi-experimental Analysis in Shenzhen, China

Using Shenzhen, China as a case study, we observed that metro (i.e., subway) expansion can generate network spillover effects on metro usage along the existing metro lines. We also found that metro-induced network spillover effect follows a distance decay pattern both along the metro line and areas adjacent to stations. Analyzing time-varying network spillover effect can produce more accurate assessments of the travel behavior implications stemming from metro expansion, thereby better informing the metro investment, land value capitalization strategies, and transit-oriented development.