Improved estimation of CO2 emissions from thermal power plants based on OCO-2 XCO2 retrieval using inline plume simulation

CO2 emissions from power plants are the dominant source of global CO2 emissions, thus in the context of global warming, accurate estimation of CO2 emissions from power plants is essential for the effective control of carbon emissions. Based on the XCO2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) and the Gaussian Plume Model (GPM), a series of studies have been carried out to estimate CO2 emission from power plants. However, the GPM is an ideal model, and there are a number of assumptions that need to be made when using this model, resulting in large uncertainties in the inverted emissions. Here, based on 6 cases of power plant plumes observed by the OCO-2 satellite over the Yangtze River Delta, China, we use an inline plume rise module coupled in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) to simulate the plumes and invert the emissions, and compare the simulated plumes and inverted emissions using the GPM model. We found that CO2 emissions can be significantly overestimated or underestimated based on the GPM simulations, and that the CMAQ inline plume simulation could significantly improve the estimates. However, the simulation bias in wind speed can significantly affect the inversion results. These results indicate that accurate meteorological field and plume simulations are critical for future inversion of point source emissions.