The rising human footprint in the Tibetan Plateau threatens the effectiveness of ecological restoration on vegetation growth

Ecological restoration projects in the Tibetan Plateau aimed to reverse ecosystem degradation and safeguard the fragile alpine ecological environment. However, it is still being determined if the vegetation restoration is successful on a large scale or reaches the expected magnitude, restricting our ability to adapt practices to maximise the benefit. With multiple vegetation indices (VIs: NDVI, LAI, and GPP) from satellite observations and random forest machine-learning models, we performed an attribution study on vegetation growth trends caused by climate change and human activities. Then, we further explored the relationship between vegetation growth and ecological projects and human footprint without the influence of climate. The results showed that climatic change was a relatively strong driver of vegetation growth. The positive contributions of ecological restoration occurred only in half of the plateau due to the increased human footprint. Vegetation enhancement resulting from ecological restoration occurred in 13.1%–23.1% of the plateau. Among these values, ecological restoration counteracted the negative climate effects in 4.7%–8.3% of the plateau (about half of the negative climate effect area). In forest and grassland protection areas, the ecological restoration was more successful. The study provides a better understanding of the role of ecological projects in vegetation restoration and potential threats to its effectiveness. This is essential to improve future restoration projects.