Risk-Based Design Optimization via Scenario Generation and Genetic Programming Under Hybrid Uncertainties

Abstract The design of complex systems often requires the incorporation of uncertainty optimization strategies to mitigate system failures resulting from multiple uncertainties during actual operation. Risk-based design optimization, as an alternative methodology that accounts for the balance between design cost and performance, has garnered significant attention and recognition. This paper presents a risk design optimization method for tackling hybrid uncertainties via scenario generation and genetic programming. The hybrid uncertainties are quantified through the scenario generation method to obtain risk assessment indicators. The genetic programming method is used to simulate the real output of the objective or constraints. To drive the optimization process, the sample-based discrete gradient expression is constructed, and the optimal scheme aligning the risk requirements is obtained. Three calculation examples of varying computing complexity are presented to verify the efficacy and usability of the suggested approach.