Dynamic Coupling Analysis of New‐Type Urbanization and Water Resources Security: A System Dynamics‐Based Empirical Study From China

ABSTRACT Urbanization and water resource management are critical challenges facing many countries, especially in rapidly developing economies like China. This study investigates the dynamic coupling between new‐type urbanization (NTU) and water resources security (WRS), employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. Four distinct development scenarios (baseline scenario, green low‐carbon scenario, high growth scenario, and coordinated development scenario) are simulated to evaluate the impact of urbanization trajectories and water management policies on water consumption, water security, and ecological sustainability. The model incorporates key variables such as per capita GDP, urbanization rate, water scarcity, and pollution to capture the feedback loops between urbanization and water resource dynamics. The findings indicate that the coordinated development scenario, which integrates water efficiency measures and ecological protection policies, demonstrates the most promising outcomes for long‐term water security. In contrast, the high growth scenario leads to increased water demand and significant pressures on water resources, whereas the green low‐carbon scenario emphasizes sustainable growth by reducing water consumption and minimizing environmental impacts. This study provides valuable insights into the trade‐offs between economic growth, population increase, and water resource sustainability, offering policy recommendations for achieving balanced urbanization and sustainable water management. The results underscore the need for integrated policies that combine urban growth management with water conservation and ecological protection.