众包
反事实思维
违反直觉
计算机科学
复杂适应系统
困境
风险分析(工程)
适应性反应
适应(眼睛)
预测(人工智能)
人在回路中
灾害应对
对偶(语法数字)
应急响应
适应性
系统动力学
自适应系统
计算机安全
事件(粒子物理)
复杂系统
系统思维
弹道
概念模型
可靠性工程
概念框架
信号(编程语言)
过程管理
环路图
弹性(材料科学)
灵活性(工程)
知识管理
工程类
激励
作者
Shan Gao,Baian Zhu,Xinyu Zhang
摘要
The efficiency of emergency response is crucial, yet traditional top-down systems are often overwhelmed. Digital spontaneous volunteers (DSVs) offer a vital bottom-up force, but their effectiveness is frequently constrained by a dual dilemma of external integration and internal coordination. This study explores how to optimize DSV crowdsourcing by investigating the role of sustained trust from formal organizations and the logic of adaptive crowdsourcing based on complex adaptive systems theory. Using an agent-based model calibrated with data from the "life-saving document" case during China's 2021 Henan rainstorm, we conducted counterfactual experiments. The results demonstrate that sustained trust from formal organizations is fundamental; its erosion leads to a collapse in rescue efficiency, even with highly accessible information channels. Furthermore, the study reveals a counterintuitive finding: Adaptive crowdsourcing significantly improves efficiency not by maximizing volunteer numbers, but by restraining their generation based on real-time demand gaps. This research highlights that the effectiveness of DSV crowdsourcing hinges on dynamic trust-building and controlled, adaptive coordination, offering a conceptual shift from viewing self-organization as an uncontrollable force to a system that can be optimized through design.
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