A Rise in Reactive Criminal Thinking Over the Course of a 10‐Week Prison‐Based Programme Predicts Increased Criminal Propensity: Testing the Exportation Hypothesis

ABSTRACT Background The importation model holds that inmate behaviour is a function of behaviours and thought patterns offenders bring with them into prison from the community. It may also be that offenders export behaviours and thought patterns they develop or refine in prison when they return to the community. Aims The purpose of this study was to determine whether an increase in reactive criminal thinking in prisoners predicts recidivism following release. Methods A sample of 282 male prisoners housed in a medium security federal facility completed the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) at the beginning and end of a 10‐week therapy group and were eventually released back to the community. Results The results of a Cox proportional hazards survival analysis revealed that prisoners who experienced a rise in reactive criminal thinking over the course of the 10‐week group were significantly more likely to recidivate than prisoners who did not display an increase in reactive criminal thinking, controlling for several factors, including prior arrests. Conclusions These results indicate that growth in reactive criminal thinking during incarceration portends poor outcomes upon release from prison. This suggests that a lack of critical thinking, potentially attributable to a rise in reactive criminal thinking during incarceration, may interfere with a person's ability to reintegrate safely and effectively into society once they are released from prison.