Rate and growth limits for carbon capture and storage

Abstract CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in geological reservoirs is expected to play a large role in low-emissions scenarios from multi-sector human Earth system models. Yet these scenarios have often projected near-term CCS deployments that far exceed what is currently planned, let alone operational. They have also failed to consider regional differences in capacity to deploy large-scale CO2 capture, transport, and subsurface injection. Here, we update a leading integrated energy-economy-land model by recalibrating maximum deployments to publicly announced CCS projects through to 2030. We also quantify a range of regionally explicit future scaling and maximum injection rates for the overall CCS value chain and evaluate their implications for emissions trajectories, energy mix, use of rate-limited storage capacity, and mitigation costs. Under limited CCS growth rates, deployment at mid-century and 2100 could be reduced by a factor of 7 relative to a scenario that does not consider injectivity or growth rate limits. However, sustained efforts to rapidly scale CCS could reduce transition costs by nearly $11 trillion (20%) globally, with cost reductions most heavily concentrated in regions such as China and India. Delayed mitigation combined with slower-than-expected CCS deployment could result in large and prolonged temperature overshoot. Conversely, there are lower peak and long-term temperatures with aggressive emissions cuts in anticipation of slow CCS scaling that subsequently far exceeds expectations.