生产(经济)
灵活性(工程)
现代投资组合理论
文件夹
计算机科学
功能(生物学)
运筹学
人口
农业综合企业
产量(工程)
经济
微观经济学
数学
农业
地理
统计
金融经济学
社会学
人口学
考古
冶金
材料科学
生物
进化生物学
作者
Saurabh Bansal,Genaro J. Gutiérrez,Mahesh Nagarajan
出处
期刊:INFORMS journal on applied analytics
[Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences]
日期:2021-09-01
卷期号:51 (5): 332-346
被引量:2
标识
DOI:10.1287/inte.2021.1080
摘要
Agribusiness firms, with an eye toward increasing population and evolving weather patterns, are investing heavily into developing new varieties of staple crops that can provide higher yields and are robust to weather fluctuations. In this paper, we describe a multiyear effort at Dow Agrosciences (now Corteva) to manage its seed corn portfolio, which includes several hundred seeds and is valued at more than $1 billion. The effort had two mutually interacting parts: (1) developing a decision-analytic theory to estimate the production yield distributions for new seed varieties from discrete quantile judgments provided by plant biology experts and (2) developing an optimization protocol to determine Dow's annual production plan for the seed portfolio with the flexibility of backup production in South America, under production yield uncertainty. The first part, owned by the research and development (R&D) function, provides yield probability distributions as inputs to the optimization protocol of the second part, which the production function owns. The results of the optimization problem, which include information about the attractiveness of specific future varieties, are returned to R&D. Both parts incorporate contextual details specific to this industry. In this paper, we show the optimality of linear policies for both problems. Additionally, the linear policies have many attractive structural properties that continue to hold for the more complex instances of the problems. A major strength of the theory we developed is that it is implementable in a transparent fashion, providing managers with a user-friendly, real-time decision support tool. The implementation of the theory developed has led to significant monetary and managerial benefits at Dow.
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