How much to pay for tax certainty? The role of advance tax rulings for risky investment under loss offset and tax uncertainty

Abstract This study examines the impact of tax certainty through advance tax rulings (ATRs) on firms’ risky investments under cash flow and tax uncertainty. Both firms and governments have expressed growing concern about increasing tax uncertainty, due to frequent tax reforms and the difficulty in applying ambiguous tax laws and anticipating audit outcomes. One remedy is the provision of ATRs, which offer upfront clarification of tax issues to reduce tax uncertainty and increase risk-taking. We analyze how these uncertainties, along with different tax rates, loss offset provisions, and ATR fees affect investment strategies. Our results suggest, first, that ATRs encourage riskier investments, particularly in tax regimes with generous loss offsets. We identify optimal ranges of ATR fees that benefit firms and tax authorities. Second, we show that it may be beneficial to design ATRs with a low or negative fee. Third, our study reveals a U-shaped relationship between firms’ risk aversion and their willingness to pay for tax certainty, with willingness being higher for firms at low or high levels of risk aversion. In contrast, moderately risk-averse firms are only willing to accept low fees. Overall, our results highlight the importance of low-cost tax certainty combined with generous loss offset provisions to encourage risky investments.