Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Variability and Factors Influencing the Ecological Resilience in the Urban Agglomeration on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountain

Based on land-use change data, this paper constructed an ecological resilience evaluation model from the three dimensions of resistance, adaptability, and regeneration capacity. The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the ecological resilience of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain (UANST) from 1990 to 2020 were studied. The key factors affecting the spatial distribution of ecological resilience were detected. The results showed that (1) from 1990 to 2020, the mean ecological resilience values of the UANST were 0.3371, 0.3326, 0.3330, and 0.3240, showing an overall decreasing trend. The regions with low and medium values of ecological resilience contributed the most to these values. (2) The spatial distribution of the ecological resilience of the UANST was uneven, showing a “sandwich”-type distribution with low values in the south and north of the study area and high values in the middle of the study area. During the study period, the ecological resilience in the north part of the study area declined overall, while the ecological resilience in the south part of the study area increased continuously. (3) The results of the Geodetector model showed that natural and human factors jointly influenced the spatial distribution of the ecological resilience of the UANST, with natural factors dominating and temperature changes being the most sensitive. Finally, the impact of intense human activities on the ecological resilience of the UANST is increasing.