Assessment of Land Desertification and Its Drivers in Semi-Arid Alpine Mountains: A Case Study of the Qilian Mountains Region, Northwest China

Land desertification associated with climate change and human activities significantly impacts ecosystem functioning in semi-arid alpine mountains. However, accurately revealing the state of desertification risk and the drivers of its evolution is frequently difficult, especially in the semi-arid alpine mountains. A new theoretical framework that combined qualitative and quantitative concepts has been developed to enhance ecological risk assessment in semi-arid alpine mountains and reveal the causes of desertification. The PSR model, multi-layer hierarchical theory, hierarchical analysis, inverse cloud generating principles, field surveys, structured questionnaires, and remote sensing techniques are all combined in this method. Our results showed that the risk of desertification in the study area exhibited a fluctuating trend between 2000 and 2020, with a period of decrease, followed by an increase, and then a subsequent decrease. However, the risk status remained overall stable, remaining at a light desertification level during the entire period. Desertification risk is driven primarily by climate warming and humidification, which can cause the melting of ice/snow. Additionally, increased rainfall and freeze–thaw cycles can enhance soil erosion, further exacerbating the risk. Conversely, the implementation of environmental protection projects, such as the establishment of protected areas, efforts to restore forests and grasslands, and initiatives to conserve soil and water, has been effective in limiting the increase in desertification risk. These efforts serve as a counterforce to the negative impacts of climate change and human activity, highlighting the beneficial effects of human intervention in preventing desertification. High-altitude, high-topographic relief places have considerable desertification risk, mainly in the alpine desert. Due to geography, grazing, rodent and pest infestation, and wildlife, there is still a risk of desertification expanding in low elevation areas. There will be a greater urgency in the future to enhance the management of anthropogenic activities in the local environment in order to handle the growing threat of desertification caused by climate change. This study combined the interactions of the natural environment and human activities, filled a research gap in assessing desertification risk, and revealed its driving mechanisms, as well as provided a theoretical foundation for improving the integrity and sustainability of ecosystems in semi-arid alpine regions and elsewhere.