Nutrient-sensitive blue carbon dynamics model: A stochastic model for climate changes mitigation strategies

In light of the pressing issue of climate change and escalating global carbon emissions, this study investigates the efficacy of blue carbon ecosystems — namely, mangroves, sea-grasses, and tidal marshes — in carbon sequestration and climate mitigation. Focused on formulating actionable strategies, we examine these ecosystems’ capacity to serve as natural carbon sinks under nutrient stress conditions. Utilizing a sophisticated mathematical model that incorporates both deterministic and stochastic elements, we simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycling within these ecosystems to capture the complexity and variability of natural processes. Our equilibrium analysis identifies critical thresholds at which these ecosystems optimally function as carbon sinks. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis highlights key parameters such as nutrient availability and hydrodynamic conditions that significantly influence these thresholds. Results indicate that management practices focusing on nutrient regulation could enhance the carbon sequestration potential of these ecosystems. The insights derived from this research not only deepen our understanding of the role of blue carbon in climate mitigation but also offer concrete recommendations for policymakers and conservationists to optimize these natural resources in combating global warming.