Validity of Using the Load-Velocity Relationship to Estimate 1 Repetition Maximum in the Back Squat Exercise: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract LeMense, AT, Malone, GT, Kinderman, MA, Fedewa, MV, and Winchester, LJ. Validity of using the load-velocity relationship to estimate 1 repetition maximum in the back squat exercise: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Strength Cond Res 38(3): 612–619, 2024—The one repetition maximum (1RM) test is commonly used to assess muscular strength. However, 1RM testing can be time consuming, physically taxing, and may be difficult to perform in athletics team settings with practice and competition schedules. Alternatively, 1RM can be estimated from bar or movement velocity at submaximal loads using the minimum velocity threshold (MVT) method based on the load-velocity relationship. Despite its potential utility, this method's validity has yielded inconsistent results. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the validity of estimated 1RM from bar velocity in the back squat exercise. A systematic search of 3 electronic databases was conducted using combinations of the following keywords: “velocity-based training,” “load-velocity profiling,” “mean velocity,” “mean propulsive velocity,” “peak velocity,” “maximal strength,” “1RM,” “estimation,” “prediction,” “back squat,” and “regression.” The search identified 372 unique articles, with 4 studies included in the final analysis. Significance was defined as a p level less than 0.05. A total of 27 effects from 71 subjects between the ages of 17–25 years were analyzed; 85.2% of effects were obtained from male subjects. Measured 1RMs ranged from 86.5 to 153.1 kg, whereas estimated 1RMs ranged from 88.6 to 171.6 kg. Using a 3-level random effects model, 1RM back squat was overestimated when derived from bar velocity using the MVT method (effect sizes [ES] = 0.5304, 95% CI: 0.1878–0.8730, p = 0.0038). The MVT method is not a viable option for estimating 1RM in the free weight back squat. Strength and conditioning professionals should exercise caution when estimating 1RM from the load-velocity relationship.