From Lurkers to Workers: Predicting Voluntary Contribution and Community Welfare

In an online community, users can interact with fellow community members by voluntarily contributing to existing discussion threads or by starting new threads. In practice, however, the vast majority of a community’s users (∼90%) remain inactive (lurk), simply observing contributions made by intermittent (∼9%) and heavy (∼1%) contributors. Our research examines increases and decreases of types of user engagement in online communities, characterizing user engagement based on trace user activity or lack of activity. Some lurkers later become workers (i.e., engaged in the community), but some will not. Differentiating lurkers who can be engaged from those who cannot enables managers to anticipate and proactively direct their resources toward the users who are most likely to become or remain workers (i.e., heavy contributors), thereby promoting community welfare. Our research, based on analysis of 533,714 posts from an online diabetes community, can thus guide managerial interventions to increase online community welfare.