Socioeconomic drivers of urban heat island effect: Empirical evidence from major Chinese cities

• The effects of socioeconomic drivers (economic, population and industrial structure) on UHI were identified by GAM models. • Socioeconomic factors explained 12 %∼20 % of the variations of UHI intensity in China. • Urban economic scale has a higher contribution rate than variables of population and industrial structure. • Rapid growth of urban economic scale raised the heat stress in hot summer. • Empirical results support post-environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for UHI effect from 2003 to 2016. Does socioeconomic development result in exacerbation of urban thermal environment? The answer to this question is extremely critical for mitigating and adapting urban heat island effect (UHI). However, such question has not yet been fully understood the details. The aim of this study was to measure the magnitudes and marginal effect of socioeconomic drivers on UHI dynamics in major Chinese cities. We utilized generalized additive model (GAM) for modelling non-linear/linear relations between economic output, population, industrial structure, geographical features and UHI at seasonal and climate-zones level. The results demonstrate socioeconomic factors explain 12 %∼20 % of UHI intensity variations. Urban economic scale generally has a higher contribution rate than variables of population and industrial structure. Urban economic growth raised the heat stress in hot summer. Moreover, a negative linear nexus was observed between the UHI intensity and per capita GDP, indicating that the empirical results supported a post-environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship during the sample period. We suggest both controlling population size and increasing per capita GDP may contribute to mitigate the summer UHI in the tropical cities. Our study highlights macro socioeconomic policy design and urban planning should be combined to counteract or mitigate the UHI.