The relationship between GHG emissions and agricultural land productivity in the EU member states and Ukraine

The article is devoted to the quantitative relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural land productivity in EU member states and Ukraine (a country that continues to integrate into the EU). The author made a comparative analysis of the productivity of agricultural land in EU member states, other leading players in the world agricultural market, Ukraine and the world average. The method of statistical grouping to determine the reason for the different productivity of agricultural land (the value of gross output per 1 hectare of agricultural land) in the EU member states and in Ukraine was used. The author identified the cause of high levels of greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide equivalent) per hectare of agricultural land in the most developed EU countries by using the graphical method. Based on the calculated target level of greenhouse gas emissions per hectare of agricultural land in the EU until 2030, required by the European Green Deal, the probable threat to EU member states and Ukraine in terms of possible decline in agricultural production has been identified. By using the econometric method and the method of regression analysis, the author identified the existence of a positive and strong quantitative relationship between emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent and value of agricultural production per hectare of land in EU member states and Ukraine. The magnitude of the increasing of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions under condition of increasing the value of gross output per hectare of agricultural land by one euro is calculated. Based on the results of the study, the author concluded that there is a high probability of reducing the productivity of agricultural land in developed EU countries, if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to the level of the target value. The author also substantiated the practical lack of opportunity for less developed countries of the EU and Ukraine to increase the economic productivity of land, according to realize the requirements of the European Green Deal. Recommendations for avoiding a possible threat in agricultural production of the studied countries are summarized.