酶学的
中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒
中东呼吸综合征
生态位
大流行
航程(航空)
地理
生态学
人口
中东
人口学
2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)
环境卫生
生物
医学
病毒学
疾病
传染病(医学专业)
栖息地
病毒
材料科学
考古
病理
社会学
复合材料
作者
Anran Zhang,Xin‐Lou Li,Tao Wang,Kun Liu,Ming‐Jin Liu,Wenhui Zhang,Guoping Zhao,Jin‐Jin Chen,Xiao‐Ai Zhang,Dong Miao,Wei Ma,Li‐Qun Fang,Yang Yang,Wei Liu
摘要
The ongoing enzootic circulation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly raising the concern about the possibility of its recombination with other human-adapted coronaviruses, particularly the pandemic SARS-CoV-2. We aim to provide an updated picture about ecological niches of MERS-CoV and associated socio-environmental drivers. Based on 356 confirmed MERS cases with animal contact reported to the WHO and 63 records of animal infections collected from the literature as of 30 May 2020, we assessed ecological niches of MERS-CoV using an ensemble model integrating three machine learning algorithms. With a high predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 91.66% in test data), the ensemble model estimated that ecologically suitable areas span over the Middle East, South Asia and the whole North Africa, much wider than the range of reported locally infected MERS cases and test-positive animal samples. Ecological suitability for MERS-CoV was significantly associated with high levels of bareland coverage (relative contribution = 30.06%), population density (7.28%), average temperature (6.48%) and camel density (6.20%). Future surveillance and intervention programs should target the high-risk populations and regions informed by updated quantitative analyses.
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