Increasing Occurrence of Sudden Turns From Drought to Flood Over China

Abstract This study focuses on a new compounding concern, the sudden turn from drought to flood (STDF), that is becoming increasingly prominent. This study investigates the long‐term trends and variability of STDFs in China during 1961–2020. The findings indicate that STDFs are prevalent in north and northeast China, and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The probability of a drought being followed by a severe flood is approaching 35% in northern and northeastern China. Since 1961, the number of STDFs in China has increased at a rate of average 2.8 events per decade. This increase mainly has occurred in late spring and early summer. The likelihood that a drought being followed by a significant pluvial is also increasing. The increasing STDF in northern China is mainly attributable to the increasing flood frequency and volatility of precipitation. Changes in the STDF trend is more dependent on the drought frequency in the YRD.