The green and low-carbon development pathways in the urban and rural building sector in Shaanxi Province, China

The scientific evaluation of carbon-emission trends and pathways for carbon reduction in China's provincial buildings can play a crucial role in achieving the goals of carbon peaking and neutrality. In this study, a new carbon-emission simulation model was developed using a bottom-up approach for Shaanxi Province. The model incorporated various influencing factors, such as building area, building type, building-energy efficiency and energy-consumption structure, while quantifying the area parameters through building metabolism. This study combines relevant literature, policies and regional resource conditions to create a single scenario of carbon-reduction measures, including the application of green building materials, structural adjustments to building-energy consumption, improvements in building-energy efficiency and increased carbon sinks in buildings. We arranged and combined these scenarios into nine different combinations. We predicted the trends in carbon-emission changes in Shaanxi's urban and rural buildings in the operational phase from 2020 to 2060 under single and combined scenarios; moreover, we quantified and analysed the carbon-reduction contributions of each carbon-reduction measure in the green and low-carbon realisation pathways of urban and rural buildings. The findings of this study revealed the following key points. (1) Structural adjustments to building-energy consumption have the greatest potential for carbon reduction and play a central role in achieving a green, low-carbon pathway. In the later stages of carbon-emission forecasting, when structural adjustments to building-energy consumption reach saturation, improvements in building-energy efficiency become crucial for influencing carbon-emission changes. (2) Through a carbon-reduction pathway centred on the improvement of building-energy efficiency and structural adjustments to building energy consumption, with green building material application and carbon sink increase as supporting measures, Shaanxi's urban and rural buildings are expected to achieve carbon neutrality by around 2059, with carbon emissions of −902,200 tCO2. Under the China Development Goal of Carbon Neutrality for 2060, this is a green, low-carbon pathway for urban and rural buildings in Shaanxi Province. (3) In the green and low-carbon pathways for urban and rural buildings in Shaanxi Province, the top three contributors to carbon-emission reduction were increasing the share of green electricity applications (49.14%), reducing traditional energy consumption (18.56%) and increasing the proportion of new low-carbon buildings (16.81%). This study provides a scientific foundation and decision-making reference for the formulation of green and low-carbon development pathways for urban and rural construction in China's Shaanxi Province.