[Trend and quantitative analysis of disease mortality in China from 1990 to 2021].

Objective: To analyze the long-term trends in cause-specific mortality across different sexes and age groups in China from 1990 to 2021, and quantitatively assess the impact of population aging on cause-specific deaths by sex. Methods: Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this study extracted the number of deaths, crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for all causes, Level 1 causes (communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; non-communicable diseases; injuries) and Level 3 causes in China from 1990 to 2021, stratified by sex and age group. This study analyzed the current situation and long-term trends in mortality in China, applying decomposition analysis to quantify the impact of population aging on the number of deaths. Results: In 2021, the ASMRs of all-cause death and the three primary causes of death in Level 1 in China were 644.68, 26.59, 575.55, and 41.82 per 100 000, respectively. The ASMRs of the three primary causes continued to decline, with the smallest decrease observed in non-communicable diseases [EAPC=-1.79%, 95%CI (-1.92%, -1.66%)] and the largest in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNND) [EAPC=-5.86%, 95%CI (-6.06%, -5.65%)]. The ASMRs were higher in males than females, with a smaller decline. Mortality was higher in the elderly. CMNND deaths mainly occurred in children under 5 and the elderly; non-communicable disease deaths were concentrated in the elderly; injury deaths were relatively evenly distributed across age groups. The proportion of CMNND deaths decreased annually, while the proportion of non-communicable disease deaths increased. From 1990 to 2021, population aging contributed to an increase of 8.11 million all-cause deaths, 167 464.42 CMNND deaths, 7.74 million non-communicable diseases deaths, and 196 287.78 injury deaths. The impact of population aging differed by sex and disease, with male and female aging-related deaths increasing by 4.47 million and 3.70 million, respectively. Compared to 1990, the age-specific mortality rate contributions in 2021 were -72.82% for males and -93.87% for females, with variations by sex and disease. Conclusion: The composition of disease-related deaths in China has changed notably. Population aging is linked to the sharp rise in deaths, with varying impacts across sexes and diseases. Reducing disease mortality can help lessen the negative effects of population aging.