Epidemiological trends of osteoarthritis at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050

Abstract Background Osteoarthritis is a major cause of disability worldwide, with its prevalence expected to increase due to ageing populations and rising obesity. Understanding the epidemiological trends in osteoarthritis is critical for public health planning and intervention strategies. Methods This study analyzed global, regional, and national data on osteoarthritis incidence, prevalence, and Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) utilizing the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Statistical modelling was used to assess trends over the past 32 years and projections were made for 2050 based on demographic changes and historical data. Results In 2021, 607 (95% UI: 538-671) million people worldwide had osteoarthritis, with 46.6 (95% UI: 41.1-51.6) million new cases and 21.3 (95% UI: 10.2-42.9) million DALYs. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence and DALYs rates increased to 535.00 (95% UI: 472.38-591.97), 6967.29 (95% UI: 6180.70-7686.06), and 244.50 (95% UI: 117.06-493.11) per 100,000 population, with knee osteoarthritis accounting for more than 56%. Age-standardized rates of osteoarthritis were higher in females than in males. East Asia, South Asia, and Western Europe were the regions and China, India, and the United States were the countries with the highest burdens. In addition, high body-mass index (BMI) led to 4.43 (95% UI: -0.42-12.34) million DALYs, with an increase of 205.10%. Bayesian age-period cohort projections showed that the burden of osteoarthritis would continue to rise from 2021 to 2050. Conclusions The findings indicated that the burden of osteoarthritis is on a rising trend with an ageing population and increasing global obesity rates, with females and middle-aged and older age groups being the current populations of concern. Comprehensive public health policies and strategies are urgently needed to address its impact. Increased awareness, early detection and effective management are essential to reduce the burden of osteoarthritis in the coming decades, especially among vulnerable groups.