Development of the Pulmonary Embolism Progression (PEP) score for predicting short-term clinical deterioration in intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism: a single-center retrospective study

Abstract Accurate risk stratification in acute intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) is essential. Current prediction scores lack the ability to forecast impending clinical decline. The Pulmonary Embolism Progression (PEP) score aims to predict short-term clinical deterioration (respiratory failure or hemodynamic instability within 72 h) in patients with intermediate-risk PE. This single-center retrospective cohort study analyzed patients with intermediate PE. The outcome of interest was respiratory failure or hemodynamic instability within 72 h. A multivariate logistic regression identified five predictive variables for the final PEP score: use of > 4 L/min of supplemental oxygen above baseline, lactate > 2.0 mmol/L, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) > 40 ng/L, tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) < 13 mm, and the combination of central and subsegmental clot. The derivation cohort included 117 patients, and the validation cohort included 70 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the derivation cohort was 0.8671 (95% CI: 0.7946, 0.9292), and for the validation cohort, it was 0.9264 (95% CI: 0.8680, 0.9847). A PEP score of 4 points yielded the highest combination of sensitivity (93%) and specificity (65%). Each incremental point increase in the PEP score raised the probability of clinical deterioration by a factor of 1.933. The PEP score is a reliable tool for predicting the likelihood of clinical deterioration in intermediate-risk PE patients within 72 h, potentially aiding in timely clinical decision-making and improving patient outcomes. Graphical abstract