Quantifying the Influence of Different Block Types on the Urban Heat Risk in High-Density Cities

Urbanization and climate change have led to rising urban temperatures, increasing heat-related health risks. Assessing urban heat risk is crucial for understanding and mitigating these risks. Many studies often overlook the impact of block types on heat risk, which limits the development of mitigation strategies during urban planning. This study aims to investigate the influence of various spatial factors on the heat risk at the block scale. Firstly, a GIS approach was used to generate a Local Climate Zones (LCZ) map, which represents different block types. Secondly, a heat risk assessment model was developed using hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators. Thirdly, the risk model was demonstrated in Guangzhou, a high-density city in China, to investigate the distribution of heat risk among different block types. An XGBoost model was used to analyze the impact of various urban spatial factors on heat risk. Results revealed significant variations in heat risk susceptibility among different block types. Specifically, 33.9% of LCZ 1–4 areas were classified as being at a high-risk level, while only 23.8% of LCZ 6–9 areas fell into this level. In addition, the pervious surface fraction (PSF) had the strongest influence on heat risk level, followed by the height of roughness elements (HRE), building surface fraction (BSF), and sky view factor (SVF). SVF and PSF had a negative impact on heat risk, while HRE and BSF had a positive effect. The heat risk assessment model provides valuable insights into the spatial characteristics of heat risk influenced by different urban morphologies. This study will assist in formulating reasonable risk mitigation measures at the planning level in the future.