Carbon emission reduction pathways under carbon neutrality targets in Gansu province of China

Gansu province will fulfill the carbon reduction target under the national carbon neutrality strategy. As a developing province in China, Gansu will have to trade off carbon reduction targets and economic development. This study adopts a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the carbon reduction pathway and estimate the possible impacts on the economy, output and environment under a carbon-neutral target. Our results show carbon emission will peak around 2033 in the baseline scenario and decline slowly after the peak. While carbon emissions will peak around 2023 in the carbon neutral scenario and decline very fast from 154 million tons in 2023 to 40 million ton in 2060. The economy will continue to increase from 734 billion CNY in 2017–3375 billion CNY in 2050 under a carbon reduction target, which means the carbon neutral target will have very limited economic impacts by 2060. At the sector level, economic outputs vary among different sectors. The output will increase significantly, such as power generation 14%, water supply 8% and nonmental 4%. Some other sectors will decrease quickly, paper 15% and textile industry 7%. Carbon reduction will also contribute to air pollutants reduction, which is a benefit to air quality. Carbon neutral targets will bring more opportunities in Gansu due to green energy potential without economic burden. Proper carbon mitigation policy would avoid the adverse impact but bring more potential to the economy in Gansu.