Scoring a Touchdown with Variable Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment in the NFL Ticket Markets

Although variable pricing enables sports teams to respond to changing demand across games, reports point to somewhat limited implementation. In this paper, we study the implications of a switch to variable pricing on the primary and resale ticket markets using quasi-experimental data from the National Football League. Applying a difference-in-differences technique with propensity score weighting, we first show that the adoption of variable pricing increases primary market ticket sales by 1.59% per game. We then explore the mechanism behind this positive impact. We find that lower prices for the less attractive games are well received by customers, and customers do not have an unfavorable response to higher prices for the more attractive games. Our analysis of the customers’ activities in the resale market shows that the minimum resale market prices increase for the more attractive games following the switch to variable pricing. This analysis provides evidence for the increase in the option value created by the resale market and explains the positive response to higher prices for the more attractive games. Finally, we investigate when variable pricing is likely to be the most effective. We find that variable pricing has greater success in team hometowns with lower income levels and higher income diversity, and creating more game tiers in variable pricing leads to higher sales. This paper was accepted by Gabriel Weintraub, revenue management and market analytics. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4588 .