Research on Service-Level Evaluation Method of Inland Waterways Based on Maximum Queue Length Prediction

The efficient balancing of ship passing operation efficiency and transport capacity is a crucial aspect of passing capacity in inland water systems. However, the current approach to designing ship passing capacity is based on expert experience rather than objective evaluation of results, which can result in a loss of efficiency or cause traffic jams. To address this issue, this study adopts the widely used traffic wave theory in road traffic analysis to investigate ship passing capacity in narrow waterways. A novel model is proposed that considers key elements such as ship traffic density, average speed, and waterway width to evaluate the performance of shipping traffic in the Anhui section of the Yangtze River in China. Using the proposed model, the ship passing capacity of the studied water area is analyzed on a monthly basis. The results indicate that passing capacity is influenced by ship density and waterway width, while the parameters of ship speed are less significant. This work provides a useful model for evaluating waterway passing capacity and further supports ship traffic management in inland waters.