Comprehensive evaluation and future trend prediction of ecological security in Fuzhou City: a DIKW framework and multi-model integration analysis

Understanding the ecological security situation of Fuzhou City holds significant theoretical and practical value for the government departments in implementing development strategies and achieving Sustainable Development Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). Using the Data, Information, Knowledge, and Wisdom (DIKW) framework, this study combined various remote sensing and GIS methods to comprehensively analyze Fuzhou's past, present, and future ecological security levels. The results showed a strong isotropic cluster in the city's ecological security. Among the influencing factors, the degree of regional development was found to have the greatest impact, while water body coverage had the least. The influencing factors are mutually reinforcing. Under the natural development scenario, the area of secure level in 2020 decreased by 1243.70 km2, while under the ecological protection scenario, it declined by 1263.34 km2. In the future, Fuzhou's ecological security level is expected to face increasing fragmentation. Based on these findings, the study proposes strategies to balance economic development and ecological protection in Fuzhou City. These recommendations aim to provide the government departments with relevant data support for land resource management and contribute to the high-level development of the City.