Analysis of long-term spatio-temporal changes of plateau urban wetland reveals the response mechanisms of climate and human activities: A case study from Dianchi Lake Basin 1993–2020

Wetlands serve many functions, including conserving water, providing habitats for animals and plants, and regulating climate change. Their unique ecological effects on the natural environment are indispensable in the whole ecosystem. Dianchi Lake Basin is located in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China, and mainly in Kunming. It is a typical plateau urban wetland area. Based on spatio-temporal hotspot mining, spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression, and adaptive multidimensional grey prediction, we conducted correlation analyses of the wetland changes in Dianchi Lake Basin from 1993 to 2020 under the influence of human activities and natural conditions. The results show that (1) the active wetland change zone in Dianchi Lake Basin is mainly located around Dianchi Lake, and (2) the wetlands in some areas on the north and south of Dianchi Lake declined in the early 21st century, but under the protection policy in recent years, the wetlands in these areas gradually recovered. Meanwhile, the wetlands in most areas around Dianchi Lake showed a significant growth trend from 2018 to 2020. The results suggest that the wetland change in Dianchi Lake Basin is mainly related to the urbanization of Kunming, and it can be divided into five regions (strong negative correlation, weak negative correlation, weak correlation, weak positive correlation, and strong positive correlation) according to the different correlation of human activity intensity, among which the main factors affected by nature are different, but they are all related to temperature. This study shows that, although wetlands in plateau cities can be properly restored under proper protection, wetland protection should be kept in step with the development of plateau cities to support sustainable urban development and carbon neutrality.