Evaluation of osteoarthritis disease burden in China during 1990‐2019 and forecasting its trend over the future 25 years

Objective This study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long‐term trend over the next 25 years. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and the DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age‐standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age‐period‐cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden. Results From 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53/100,000 to 509.84/100,000 (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.29‐0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5880.58/100,000 to 6330.06/100,000 (EAPC: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.28‐0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38/100,000 to 224.78/100,000 (EAPC: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.32‐0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in males and hip OA patients. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. Conclusions The disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.